DIARY OF A GRANDFATHER: Uncertain Probability or why is Bill Gates so rich?

Uncertain Probability

Football is a: hard game, random, chancy, relentless, brave, skilful, and never certain.

So much like Life!

I thought all this as I watched my grandchildren run around on a country green last Sunday playing junior footy.

This was not the polished choreographed theatrics of the AFL. It was gritty, bump, stop, start, push and shove.

Very enjoyable to watch and played with little malice, spite or vindictiveness.

The first game was played in the superior teams end with rare forays in to the weaker sides scoring arc.

The next game was an even affair with a close and equal fight with nearly equal possession and time in each scoring zone.

But as I watched I realised a defining truth; chance and what I call uncertain probability played a big part of every contest and issue decided in the game.

Because of the skill levels involved there was a high degree of randomness in the whole thing. There were many factors at play it was hard to jot them all down in my mind. But here as I write I will make an attempt.

The ball: Oval un-predictable and requiring a degree of skill to kick and pass. When it lands it can go in any direction depending on how it was kicked or passed.

Central Umpires Each one and there are two in the junior comp three in the seniors bring their own style, and interpretation

Ground Country turf soft slightly uneven and with patches of worn areas. Foot grip and bounce are variable.

Players Some gifted, most average, some below average.

Fitness level Varying from very to not very.

Crowd Small vocal passionate.

Coaches Keen, and committed lots of different skill levels.

A miss-kick, crooked bounce, bad umpiring decision, all lead to a change in outcome for the play and the flow of the game.

The dominant team of the first game overcame all this because of their better skill and easily won. (My granddaughter’s team lost)

The even duel of the second contest was decided on many random events as mentioned. My grandson’s team seemed to have a higher level of fitness which meant they were at the ball first often in the second half, leading to a close win for my grandson’s team. (Hooray)

As I drove away the kids happily cocooned and chatting away. I thought about all the things that impact on our lives an endless game of chance and randomness with far more probabilities than a game of football.

A couple of examples may make the point:

An actor lived on the fringes of New York for seven years during the late seventies and eighties. He did bit parts in television, Broadway, and did all he could to get noticed. He was unable to pay his bills at restaurants and worked to make ends meet as a bartender. Then in 1984 he flew to Los Angeles to visit a girlfriend, the Olympic Games were also on, he loved sports. He by chance met an agent there who encouraged him to make a few auditions while he was there. One show he auditioned for was a TV soap called Moonlighting. The network executives wanted someone else only the Executive Producer wanted our man. After long arguments he got his way with many misgivings from all around. The rest is history the actors name was Bruce Willis.

In 1980 a group of IBM nerds were working on a secret project to build a personal computer. They flew out west to meet a young computer entrepreneur running a little computer company. They needed an operating system. The young fella could not deliver but suggested someone else. IBM made an agreement with this other very smart other fella but they had a disagreement and the deal fell through. One of the IBM fellows bumped into our entrepreneur again and they talked. They both knew of an operating system that might do the job it was based on a system that other smart fella they had had a disagreement with had developed. The IBM nerd let our entrepreneur buy the system for $50,000. He made a few changes and renamed it DOS. The rest is history the entrepreneurs name was Bill Gates.